Cost estimates would have killed Medicare?

Numbers matter in politics, especially costs. Long-term cost estimates would have killed Medicare in the mid-1960s, political scientist James Morone argues in this NPR interview. In researching his new book The Heart of Power: Health and Politics in the Oval Office, Morone found President Lyndon Johnson worked to suppress information about long-term costs, knowing a near-$1 billion price tag would be death in the Senate.

Almost 50 years later, cost estimates still matter. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) $1 trillion price tag stuck to the health-reform package in June could end up killing that legislation.

A fascinating thing to note is this line from the story about the CBO estimate ...

The analysis estimated the net impact of a bill sponsored by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) at $1.04 trillion over the decade spanning 2010 to 2019.

... in light of Morone's research, which found President Johnson talked with Kennedy way back in the 60s about keeping the Medicare cost estimates quiet. Thus another takeaway point: There is nothing new under the sun in politics. Or as they say on Battlestar Galactica (and in Peter Pan, and throughout history), "All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."

Numbers in context

POLS 235 students, in the "Numbers" chapter from our Unit 3 textbook Policy Paradox, Deborah Stone argues numbers only make sense in context. So I was glad to see this Washington Post story, and another I heard earlier on NPR, contextualizing the important number early. Here's the first paragraph of the Post story:

Swine flu could infect half the U.S. population this fall and winter, hospitalizing up to 1.8 million people and causing as many as 90,000 deaths -- more than double the number that occur in an average flu season, according to an estimate from a presidential panel released Monday.

In the summer of Astroturf, handwrite your postcards?

A former student of mine interned for a U.S. senator this summer, which POLITICO.com calls "the summer of Astroturf." He wrote:

I found that interest groups would be wise to direct their members to handwrite their messages. That was one characteristic that could take your note to the Senator's desk or earn the constituent a call back from the Senator.

The POLITICO story gives some recent examples of Astroturf ...

The summer of Astroturf—and of accusations of Astroturf—hasn’t been limited to health care. In the single most egregious incident, Bonner & Associates, a lobbying firm, forged the signatures of local ethnic and senior citizens organizations under letters opposing a bill to regulate greenhouse gases. In another, the chairman of the American Conservative Union appeared to ask for cash in exchange for taking sides in a dispute between FedEx and UPS carriers. And the New York Times reported this week that the coal industry has taken to busing its employees, on company time, to raucous rallies against the climate legislation.

... which in this instance is of course not the stuff on which you play football, but rather is faked grassroots activity. As a University of Texas political terms glossary defines it,

The term ‘grassroots movement’ implies a broad based, deeply rooted sentiment and action among the populace. An astroturf campaign, by comparison, is artificial—i.e., it may look like the real thing, but it is orchestrated and directed by a few well-placed interest groups. In a democratic system, grass roots support is an essential legitimizing force, so political and corporate economic campaigns often subsidize or even manufacture the appearance of grass roots activity to advance particular interests. Thus, the creation of the appearance of grass roots support has gained its own label: astro turfing.

Notes to my POLS 235 students:

1. This is a good example of the Astroturf concept from your "Kingdon Summary" reading in Unit 2.


2. It's completely acceptable to write a post for your own blog, as I've done here, and then post it on the class blog. Be sure to post the whole thing on the class blog, not just a link to the post on your own blog.