Cost estimates would have killed Medicare?

Numbers matter in politics, especially costs. Long-term cost estimates would have killed Medicare in the mid-1960s, political scientist James Morone argues in this NPR interview. In researching his new book The Heart of Power: Health and Politics in the Oval Office, Morone found President Lyndon Johnson worked to suppress information about long-term costs, knowing a near-$1 billion price tag would be death in the Senate.

Almost 50 years later, cost estimates still matter. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) $1 trillion price tag stuck to the health-reform package in June could end up killing that legislation.

A fascinating thing to note is this line from the story about the CBO estimate ...

The analysis estimated the net impact of a bill sponsored by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) at $1.04 trillion over the decade spanning 2010 to 2019.

... in light of Morone's research, which found President Johnson talked with Kennedy way back in the 60s about keeping the Medicare cost estimates quiet. Thus another takeaway point: There is nothing new under the sun in politics. Or as they say on Battlestar Galactica (and in Peter Pan, and throughout history), "All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."