Welfare policy outputs vs. outcomes

Here's a good illustration of the difference between policy outputs—quantifiable results of a policy, such as the dollar value of welfare checks spent, or the number of people lifted out of poverty—and policy outcomes, or the broader, less easily quantified long-term societal consequences of a policy:

Whatever its merits, the welfare state is a disincentive to childbearing. Each generation of workers pays for the retirement benefits of the generation ahead of it. The system is powered by babies, who grow up to become productive little FICA contributors. But even if you never have children, someone else's kid will eventually pay for your Social Security benefits.

The idea of welfare as a disincentive to childbearing is an interesting twist on the argument that one of welfare's policy outcomes is a disincentive to work (i.e., why work when I can just sit and collect a check).

Of course, the author's argument that "the welfare state" discourages baby-making directly contradicts the old "welfare queen" argument that welfare recipients had more kids to get more benefits. This illustrates the rhetorical danger of conflating with each other two public programs with vastly different target populations and social constructions (see Ingram and Schneider's book, or this much shorter essay, for more on these concepts). Social Security targets retirees and is (mostly) positively socially constructed, while the federal cash assistance program popularly known as "welfare" (and less popularly known by the unpronounceable acronym PRWOA) goes to younger, and, according to a prominent social construction, less deserving population. In other words, don't confuse the welfare program with the welfare state.

via Jonathan V. Last notices a creeping anti-natalism in America and says that big families like the Duggars will support us all in our old age. - WSJ.com.

Cost-benefit analysis of California's "three strikes" law

RAND | California's New Three-Strikes Law: Benefits, Costs, and Alternatives.

Nacho typical acronym

Students of mine know I collect politics and government-related acronyms. I found a new one today: NACCHO, the National Association of County and City Health Officials.

People who have lived in and around Omaha, Nebraska, should get the bad pun in this post's title.

Cost estimates would have killed Medicare?

Numbers matter in politics, especially costs. Long-term cost estimates would have killed Medicare in the mid-1960s, political scientist James Morone argues in this NPR interview. In researching his new book The Heart of Power: Health and Politics in the Oval Office, Morone found President Lyndon Johnson worked to suppress information about long-term costs, knowing a near-$1 billion price tag would be death in the Senate.

Almost 50 years later, cost estimates still matter. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) $1 trillion price tag stuck to the health-reform package in June could end up killing that legislation.

A fascinating thing to note is this line from the story about the CBO estimate ...

The analysis estimated the net impact of a bill sponsored by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) at $1.04 trillion over the decade spanning 2010 to 2019.

... in light of Morone's research, which found President Johnson talked with Kennedy way back in the 60s about keeping the Medicare cost estimates quiet. Thus another takeaway point: There is nothing new under the sun in politics. Or as they say on Battlestar Galactica (and in Peter Pan, and throughout history), "All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."

Numbers in context

POLS 235 students, in the "Numbers" chapter from our Unit 3 textbook Policy Paradox, Deborah Stone argues numbers only make sense in context. So I was glad to see this Washington Post story, and another I heard earlier on NPR, contextualizing the important number early. Here's the first paragraph of the Post story:

Swine flu could infect half the U.S. population this fall and winter, hospitalizing up to 1.8 million people and causing as many as 90,000 deaths -- more than double the number that occur in an average flu season, according to an estimate from a presidential panel released Monday.

In the summer of Astroturf, handwrite your postcards?

A former student of mine interned for a U.S. senator this summer, which POLITICO.com calls "the summer of Astroturf." He wrote:

I found that interest groups would be wise to direct their members to handwrite their messages. That was one characteristic that could take your note to the Senator's desk or earn the constituent a call back from the Senator.

The POLITICO story gives some recent examples of Astroturf ...

The summer of Astroturf—and of accusations of Astroturf—hasn’t been limited to health care. In the single most egregious incident, Bonner & Associates, a lobbying firm, forged the signatures of local ethnic and senior citizens organizations under letters opposing a bill to regulate greenhouse gases. In another, the chairman of the American Conservative Union appeared to ask for cash in exchange for taking sides in a dispute between FedEx and UPS carriers. And the New York Times reported this week that the coal industry has taken to busing its employees, on company time, to raucous rallies against the climate legislation.

... which in this instance is of course not the stuff on which you play football, but rather is faked grassroots activity. As a University of Texas political terms glossary defines it,

The term ‘grassroots movement’ implies a broad based, deeply rooted sentiment and action among the populace. An astroturf campaign, by comparison, is artificial—i.e., it may look like the real thing, but it is orchestrated and directed by a few well-placed interest groups. In a democratic system, grass roots support is an essential legitimizing force, so political and corporate economic campaigns often subsidize or even manufacture the appearance of grass roots activity to advance particular interests. Thus, the creation of the appearance of grass roots support has gained its own label: astro turfing.

Notes to my POLS 235 students:

1. This is a good example of the Astroturf concept from your "Kingdon Summary" reading in Unit 2.


2. It's completely acceptable to write a post for your own blog, as I've done here, and then post it on the class blog. Be sure to post the whole thing on the class blog, not just a link to the post on your own blog.

Congressional Budget Office is the skunk at the picnic

NPR has a good story on the Congressional Budget Office, which is under fire as usual for its recent $1 trillion forecast of the cost of health care reform. The CBO is considered "the skunk at the picnic" by members of Congress who don't want to see the price tags for desired programs come in quite so high. But, an important point to remember is one I make to my students about all policy analysis: "In the end it's up to Congress to decide how much weight to give its research."

Budget Office Works Powerfully Behind The Scenes : NPR.

Professors and researchers move up in agenda setting?

Kingdon found professors and researchers were somewhat influential in Washington agenda setting. What effect might they have when a Gallup poll shows survey respondents more confident in them than in President Obama or Congress to recommend "the right thing for reforming the U.S. healthcare system?

This also jibes with Stealth Democracy's finding that people are willing to trust government decision making to disinterested technocrats.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) say they are confident in doctors to recommend the right thing for reforming the U.S. healthcare system. That is significantly higher than the public confidence extended to President Barack Obama, as well as to six other entities that will be weighing in during the emerging healthcare reform debate.

via Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval.

U.K. Statistics Authority polices political number manipulation

In the United Kingdom, changing the definition of unemployment 23 times changed the number of people unemployed--23 times. Enter the U.K. Statistics Authority, charged with policing political number manipulation.

On The Media: Transcript of "The Stat Police" (June 19, 2009).

In-vitro fertilization called frivolous

Would people leave in-vitro fertilization out of their health-care coverage if they could?

And, lo, it proved true, as 100 million intelligent, well-educated employees of Corporate America were allowed to see for the first time what "tax free" health insurance was really costing them. They saw how it distorted their behavior and caused them to allocate far more of their incomes to the medical-industrial complex than they would have chosen for themselves.

Eyes newly opened, they demanded cheaper insurance options, covering fewer services (cancer wigs, family counseling, in-vitro fertilization), and opted for plans with higher deductibles and co-pays in return for much lower monthly rates.

via Jenkins: The Death and Life of Health 'Reform' - WSJ.com.

Johanns warns on health care plan

This is a good complement to Deborah Stone's "Numbers" chapter in her book Policy Paradox. When you dispute whether the "47 million uninsured" figure is accurate, as U.S. Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) does in this story, you are attempting to redefine the problem.

NETRADIO: Johanns warns on health care plan (2009-06-11).

Return of the Once-Rare Beaver? Not in My Yard

An example of the unintended consequences of public policy.

Around the nation, decades of environmental regulation, conservation efforts and changing land use have brought many species, like beavers, so far back from the brink that they are viewed as nuisances. As Stuart Pimm, a conservation ecologist at Duke University, put it, “We are finding they are inconvenient.�

via Return of the Once-Rare Beaver? Not in My Yard. - NYTimes.com.

3rd party is over in Nebraska

230 Students: A story in the news about the trouble third parties have in our party system should be fun to read because you know ahead of time all the reasons third parties fail! You could give the interview for this story:

Election laws do make it harder for third parties to exist in America, said Kevin Smith, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Smith said there are several reasons why third parties have a tough time winning recognition or attention.

Structurally, he said, the nation's winner-take-all system favors a two-party system. Third parties fare better in countries where legislative and other seats are divided proportionately - based on the percentage of the vote a party's candidate wins, Smith said.

He noted that members of the nation's two dominant political parties control the state legislatures where election laws are written.

"Clearly, there is no motivation for Democrats and Republicans to increase competition," Smith said.

Omaha.com Metro/Region Section.

Word Watch: Bipartisan

230 students: I'll probably be assigning you to listen to this On the Media radio program about the definition of "bipartisan." For those of you who like to work ahead, give it a listen.

Obama promised to bring a bipartisan spirit to Washington. But this week he signed the 787 billion dollar stimulus package with basically no Republican support and the media declared it a failure of bipartisanship. What's bipartisan really mean anyway? James Morone, a professor from Brown University, says the media might have a warped sense of the word.

via On The Media: Transcript of "Word Watch: Bipartisan " (February 20, 2009).

Johanns says bipartisanship is not dead

230 students: Is it OK to be partisan when a vote represents "fundamental differences in political philosophy," and bipartisan when that's not the case?

The ‘no’ votes he’s been casting in Washington are neither partisan nor obstructionist, Johanns said.

They represent fundamental differences in political philosophy, he said, including his opposition to a stimulus bill that will result in $1 trillion in deficit spending.

Johanns thinks he can see some ‘yes’ votes coming for President Barack Obama’s initiatives.

via JournalStar.com - Lincoln, Nebraska - News - Local.

Thomas Frank Says Bipartisanship Is a Silly Beltway Obsession

230 students: Thomas Frank says it's not about the parties getting along, it's about someone passing good policies. Bipartisanship is a topic we haven't discussed in class yet. What do you think? Should we expect our leaders to work in a bipartisan fashion, or should the spoils of political power go to the victors?

Frank, by the way, is the author of the book, "What's the Matter with Kansas?" that said Christian conservatives in Kansas aren't voting their economic interests and should be with the Democratic Party.

We are watching industries crumble, Wall Street firms disappear, unemployment spike, and unprecedented government intervention. And our designated opinion leaders want to know: Is Obama up this week? Is he down? And is his leadership style more like Bill Clinton's, or Abraham Lincoln's?

Above all else stands the burning question of bipartisanship. Whatever else the politicians might say they're about, our news analysts know that this is the true object of the nation's desire, the topic to which those slippery presidential spokesmen need always to be dragged back.

via Thomas Frank Says Bipartisanship Is a Silly Beltway Obsession - WSJ.com.

What Kind Of Green Jobs Will Stimulus Spawn?

236 students: This NPR story discusses the costs and benefits of using federal economic stimulus money to create green jobs. Is it more efficient to spend money creating green jobs, versus regular jobs such as road construction? That's exactly the kind of thinking you should be doing as you study cost-benefit analysis in this class. Have a listen to the story.

The economic stimulus plan will provide roughly $70 billion for the nation's energy economy, most of it for "green" energy. Whether that will buy more jobs than spending the money elsewhere is open to debate, but green energy advocates view it as good news.

via What Kind Of Green Jobs Will Stimulus Spawn? : NPR.

Rep. Putnam To Run For Ag. Commissioner In Fla.

230 students: This NPR story is less about U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam leaving the House and more about his analysis of what the Republican Party has to do to regain power. Have a listen.

Linda Wertheimer talks to Representative Adam Putnam, a Florida Republican and former member of the House Republican leadership, about his decision to leave Congress at the end of his term and run for Florida's agriculture commissioner.

via Rep. Putnam To Run For Ag. Commissioner In Fla. : NPR.

RNC Elects Michael Steele As Chairman

230 students: This NPR story about the RNC's first black chairman illustrates well how the party organization and party in government work together. Have a listen.

The Republican National Committee picked former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele as its new chairman. Steele, the party's first African-American chairman, beat four challengers, including Mike Duncan, the incumbent.

via RNC Elects Michael Steele As Chairman : NPR.

JournalStar.com - Lincoln, Nebraska - News - Local

230 students: In the language we've been using, Fahleson is saying the Nebraska party in the electorate is still solidly Republican. Do you agree? Do you agree Sen. Ben Nelson, a moderate Democrat, is in trouble because Democrats have control of the party in government?

Fahleson said he doesn’t believe Obama’s 2008 victories in Omaha and Lincoln indicate a Democratic surge in Nebraska’s two largest cities.

“It was Obama,� he said.

“The cult of personality, an Obama phenomenon that doesn’t translate into ‘I want to vote for Democrats.’�

via JournalStar.com - Lincoln, Nebraska - News - Local.

Time is right for employer-sponsored stop-smoking plans

236 students: How would you calculate a cost-benefit ratio using this information? What else would you want to know to determine whether the benefits of a quit-smoking assistance program outweigh the costs?

Consider the state of Oklahoma, which early last year provided its employees with a new insurance benefit that offers smoking cessation assistance. Within the first six months, the program helped an estimated 570 state workers successfully quit smoking.

According to state health officials, this will result in $2.2 million in annual savings through reduced health care costs and increased employee productivity. The state plan, which costs approximately $148 per recipient, provides state workers with the option of receiving two full 90-day courses of any FDA-approved prescription tobacco cessation product each year and support through the state’s Tobacco Helpline.

via JournalStar.com - Lincoln, Nebraska - Opinion - Columns.

Budget woes prompt states to rethink prison policy

236 students: Read this story and consider how you would assign a dollar benefit to such things as public safety and inmate rehabilitation. What are those things worth, in dollars and cents? You need to figure that out in order to comprehensively analyze the costs and benefits of prison-policy reform.

Even before the recent financial meltdown, policy-makers in most states were wrestling with ways to contain corrections costs. The Pew Center's Public Safety Performance Project has projected that state and federal prison populations — under current policies — will grow by more than 190,000 by 2011, to about 1.7 million, at a cost to the states of $27.5 billion.

The Council of State Government's Justice Center has been working with 10 states to develop options for curbing prison populations without jeopardizing public safety. Tactics used in Texas and Kansas have included early release for inmates who complete specified programs, more sophisticated community supervision of offenders, and expanded treatment and diversion programs.

via The Associated Press: Budget woes prompt states to rethink prison policy.

Obama writes the post-partisan playbook

230 students: Are parties going to matter during the Obama presidency? What does this author think, and do you agree?

For a candidate who was often written off during the campaign as providing rhetoric without record, one of the remarkable things about Obama’s rise is that he apparently says what he means and means what he says — and he is defining post-partisanship before our eyes.

via Obama writes the post-partisan playbook - John P. Avlon - Politico.com.

Fahleson predicts bright Republican future

230 Students: Now that you've heard NET Radio interviewing the new Nebraska Democratic Party chairman, compare and contrast it with this interview with the new Nebraska Republican Party chairman.

Both major political parties in Nebraska have elected new state chairmen since the November election. Monday, we heard from the Nebraska Democratic Party chairman. Today, it's Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Mark Fahleson.

via NETRADIO: Fahleson predicts bright Republican future (2009-01-20).

Covalt says Democrats more in tune with times

230 Students: Listen to this NET Radio story on the state Democrats' new chairman, Vic Covalt. How partisan (or not) is his rhetoric, compared with what you've heard from party leaders in other states? Why do you think that is?

Since the November election, both major political parties in Nebraska have elected new chairmen. Tuesday, we'll hear from the Republican chairman. Today, our story's about Nebraska Democratic Chairman Vic Covalt.

via NETRADIO: Covalt says Democrats more in tune with times (2009-01-19).

Congress, Obama Toil to Help Jobless Get Health Care

236 Students: Notice how this story emphasizes the importance of cost considerations in policy debates.

The twin ideas, preliminarily estimated to cost $39 billion through the end of next year, would represent sharp departures in two long-standing programs and already are sparking debate along the ideological continuum on Capitol Hill and beyond. In Congress, several key Democratic House members and senators have endorsed the broad contours, while a few Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have signaled that they are wary. Debate, however, will not solidify until lawmakers learn more precisely how much the proposals would cost and how many people they might help.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/16/AR2009011603872.html?hpid=topnews

Is Mike Ditka a Policy Entrepreneur?

235 Students: Listen to the story below and consider: Does Mike Ditka qualify as a policy entrepreneur?

Saturday, January 17th, 2009 | NPR's Only A Game

What happens to NFL players once they’ve retired and are hit hard by medical and financial issues? Former player and Chicago Bears head coach Mike Ditka assists these players with his non-profit organization, Gridiron Greats. Bobbie O’Brien catches up with the group in Tampa as it plans for several fund-raising events leading up to the Super Bowl.

Advantage Obama: Dems in control

230 Students: Where does the below story fit into our framework for Elections and Political Parties: party in the electorate, party in government, or party organization?

Barack Obama is likely to spend the next four years with one big advantage over his recent predecessors—a first term in the White House with his party in uninterrupted control of both the House and the Senate.

It’s an advantage no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter, and one that would offer Obama a unique opportunity to carry out his agenda.

In the House, where Democrats currently enjoy a 79-seat advantage, to regain control the GOP would need to pick up at least 40 seats, a result that has occurred just four times since 1950—and would significantly surpass the Democratic routs in 2006 and 2008.

Advantage Obama: Dems in control - Charles Mahtesian - Politico.com